Hype Cycles IRL

During my run today, I noticed two Waymo cars parked in the neighborhood. As you may know, the company is launching a driverless ride service. This got me thinking about the major tech players in the autonomous car market, including Google (Waymo), Apple, and Tesla. I’ve often wondered why there’s a rush to this technology. Are human-driven cars really that problematic? My question was answered while listening to an $AAPL analyst’s podcast. Apparently, the driverless car initiative is aimed at capturing consumers’ drive time. With autonomous cars on the road, passengers aren’t focused on driving — they’re free to be captivated by their devices. It seems that driverless cars are the newest platform in which companies aim to hold our attention.

While snapping away, an older baby boomer walked up and inquired about the strange cars. I revealed that they were Google’s driverless cars, to which she quickly replied, “No, that’s not for me.” I couldn’t help but chuckle as it reminded me of the classic business book, Crossing the Chasm. This woman was the epitome of a late adopter, or possibly even a laggard, when it comes to technology.

My takeaway from the whole experience is reality of innovation and market cycles. Sometimes things catch and sometimes they don’t. Ideas go dormant because the market isn’t ready for them or the technology isn’t there. A good visual representation of this are hype cycles that show the stages of innovation. Interesting technology can sometimes take years to become mainstream. It requires the right time, the right product, and the right message. In this case it may have been too early because some of the tech was still in development. We will just have to see how driverless cars roll out in coming years. I think we’ll have to wait for all the pieces to line up before I can realistical-

In the meantime, I think it’s important to stay informed on these new technologies. It helps us identify opportunities and also prepare for potential disruptions. By understanding how things work, we can better understand where things are going and when it may be time to act. This is why it’s essential to keep up with industry trends and conduct research on where the market is headed. This way, we can be proactive in our decision-making and have a better chance of seizing new opportunities as they arise.